Lagos 2023: Examining Sanwo-Olu’s re-election anxieties, endorsements

Could endorsements alone win a second term ticket for Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu on the platform of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC)? With the hindsight of what befell his predecessor, Akinwunmi Ambode and Babatunde Fashola on their search for a second term mandate, concerns are building over how the incumbent governor would turn out.

However, going by the quantum of endorsements he has received from diverse groups and stakeholders, the governor could as well go to sleep rest assured that his second term in office is already a done deal.

The calibre of Nigerians and organisations that have commended Sanwo-Olu’s performance leaves no room to doubt that he will continue in office beyond 2023.

One theme that runs through almost all the endorsements is the subtle plea to the leadership of Lagos APC, particularly, the National Leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to retain the winning team beyond 2023.

Nevertheless, the Lagos electorate still remembers how his predecessor, Ambode, got similar endorsements in 2018 before the party suddenly made a U-turn, three months to the governorship primary, during which the former governor was eventually dropped.

The party’s apex caucus known as Governors Advisory Council (GAC) led by Tinubu recently stated that it has no plan to replace Sanwo-Olu and that such power does not lie with it.

It could be recalled that Ambode was also endorsed by the then Lagos APC state executive, lawmakers representing the state in the House of Representatives alongside the three Senators, State House of Assembly lawmakers, body of local council chairmen and several organisations within and outside the party.

The only known voice of dissent then was Mr Fouad Oki, who warned Ambode and his fans early in 2018 that the former governor would not be returned for a second term in 2019. But the endorsements somehow blindfolded many from taking Oki seriously.

Both the Presidency and Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) tried in vain to save the former governor, but he was accused of not adhering to the party’s manifesto and guidelines. At the end of the day, precisely during the 2018 governorship primary, Sanwo-Olu, another Christian like Ambode was picked.

Ever since it was insinuated that the party leadership had concluded plans that no governor in Lagos APC would serve for more than one term in office.

The precedent is said to have been set with Ambode, a Christian, who hails from Lagos East zone and served just one term before he was replaced by Sanwo-Olu, who, though a Christian, comes from Lagos Central.

In the lineup of governors from the fourth republic, it could be seen that Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Muslim from Lagos West (1999 to 2007), was succeeded in 2007 by another Muslim in the person of Fashola from Lagos Central.

The 2015 governorship election in Lagos was based on the factor that Lagos East zone and a Christian must be given the chance to rule since Tinubu and Fashola, who came from West and Central were Muslims.

The fear then was that the party leadership had tactically designed a strategy that no governor either a Christian or Muslim from whichever zone can enjoy more than one term in office after Sanwo-Olu.

That apprehension became stronger with the selection of the incumbent Deputy Governor, Obafemi Hamzat, a Muslim from Lagos East. It was assumed that by the time Sanwo-Olu rounds off his first term in 2023, his deputy, a Muslim from Lagos East, will step in to normalise the equation.

That scheme was behind the two-for-the-price-one sales pitch after Sanwo-Olu was nominated in 2018. Yet, at some point, there were concerns that the party’s leadership might not be favourably disposed to Hamzat succeeding his boss. Senator Adetokunbo Abiru, a Muslim from Lagos East was said to have been deliberately brought in from Polaris Bank, to replace the late Senator Bayo Oshinowo, who died in 2020 in readiness for the governorship.

Abiru is believed to have been tactically positioned by Tinubu to takeover from Sanwo-Olu in the event that Hamzat’s plan fails to fly. It took Abiru several efforts to explain to pundits that such insinuations were not correct. All the same, the sentiment remains very strong still, suggesting that the Abiru arrangement was designed to deprive Sanwo-Olu of second term next year.

But, with the nature of endorsements, Sanwo-Olu has garnered in recent times, as well as considering Tinubu’s interest in the 2023 presidential ticket of APC, pundits fear that an unpopular move to drop the incumbent governor may spell doom for the party.

Already, Tinubu’s hands are full with the presidential contest and he will need a stable and loyal home governor in Lagos to manage his base come 2023. “It may not be easy for Tinubu to replace Sanwo-Olu with another person because the circumstances at play now are far different from what was at stake in 2019. Sanwo-Olu may not be easily changed like Ambode without a backlash,” a source held.

Apart from Abiru, several other names like the Speaker, House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, a Muslim from Lagos Central, Speaker, Lagos House of Assembly, a Muslim from Lagos West, Seyi Tinubu, another Muslim and son of the national leader from Lagos Central and incumbent Head of Service in the state, Hakeem Muri Okunola, have all been touted as possible replacements for Sanwo-Olu for the 2023 poll. As if rehearsed, those persons have all denied such possibility.

Pro-Sanwo-Olu Sentiments
AN outstanding endorsement for Sanwo-Olu’s re-election came from the incumbent President of Senate, Senator Ahmed Lawan, who praised Sanwo-Olu for what he called “the good works” he is doing towards delivering dividends of good governance to the people of Lagos and to validate the state’s position as the economic and commercial nerve centre of the country.

Lawan spoke during the fifth Town Hall Meeting and Empowerment Programme organised by the member representing Lagos West in the Senate, Senator Solomon Adeola Olamilekan, popularly known as Yayi, at the Police College, Ikeja.

Lawan, who opened his speech on a note of admiration for the governor, said the party leadership across the country had watched with satisfaction the giant strides being made by Sanwo-Olu, stating that without any equivocation, the governor deserves re-election.

Perhaps in response to speculations that it was searching for Sanwo-Olu’s replacement, the GAC said it didn’t pick anyone for the 2023 governorship.

In a statement, Mutiu Are, GAC Secretary, urged the public to disregard speculations that the party leaders and stakeholders have settled for a replacement for Sanwo-Olu.

Also, GAC urged the governor not to be distracted from delivering good governance to the people of Lagos, adding: “The GAC has not settled for any person to replace Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu as governor. Therefore, it is absolutely false and preposterous for anyone to suggest so.

“The process of picking a Governor is clearly stated in the constitution. And contrary to the false impression the merchant of hate, confusion, discord and disharmony wanted to create with the post, there is no discussion of second term ticket by the GAC.”

Gbajabiamila, one of those whose names were being dropped as a possible replacement, while endorsing Sanwo-Olu for the second term, said the governor’s performance in the last two years had surpassed expectations.

And refuting his rumoured ambition to contest for the governorship seat in 2023, Gbajabiamila remarked that there was “no immediate plan” to contest the seat, stressing that the task before him as Number 4 citizen in the country was enormous and tough enough for him to be distracted by such rumours.

Similarly, Muri-Okunola debunked any plan to replace Sanwo-Olu as governor of the state, noting that he supports Sanwo-Olu and his administration’s plan to develop good policies and infrastructure in Lagos.

“Those behind the insinuation are working to “plant a seed of discord between Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and me,” the Head of Service said.

The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) said based on Sanwo-Olu’s giant strides, it has publicly endorsed the governor for a second term. The Christian body described the Sanwo-Olu administration as “consciously pragmatic and proactive.”

CAN Chairman, Rt. Reverend Stephen Adegbite, said it was for that reason that they want Sanwo-Olu to return for a second term.

Surprisingly, one of the ardent critics of the APC administration, Pa Ayo Adebanjo, leader of Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere, explained why he is a fan of Sanwo-Olu despite not being in the same political party.

The nonagenarian said Sanwo-Olu deserved commendation for “his prudent management of Lagos resources as well as the visible transformation of the state in a little over two years.”

Describing him as an action governor, Fashola commended the Sanwo-Olu administration for providing an enabling environment for Small and Medium Enterprises.

Renowned economist, Prof Pat Utomi, also commended the governor, saying, Lagos was being repositioned by the governor’s transformational strides.

Speaking with The Guardian on the perceived plan to deny Sanwo-Olu second term ticket, a member of the GAC, Otunba Olorunfunmi Bashorun, said Sanwo-Olu’s endorsements by the various group were not too early.

He said: “We will soon have our national convention and primaries will follow. We are looking at the next eight months or so. The governor did not also beg anybody to endorse him for a second term.

“One of the credits to Sanwo-Olu is that the young and humble man never deviated from the party’s manifesto neither has he abandoned any project of his predecessors, including that of Ambode. But Ambode abandoned many, if not, all projects he met. The former governor cancelled many and re-awarded several projects, which was a big mistake.

“There is nothing wrong if people endorsed him for the second term. I don’t see reason anybody will give Sanwo-Olu the kind of treatment given to Ambode.”

On his part, the immediate past chairman of Lagos APC, Chief Tunde Balogun, said he understood why people were worried that Sanwo-Olu should not be treated like Ambode at the last minute.

“No one can compare the two. Sanwo-Olu is different I must be honest. There may be one or two challenges, but you never see any form of bitterness against the governor among party members unlike what happened during the era of the immediate past governor.

“I know you will disagree but even in terms of effectiveness, Sanwo-Olu is better and he adhered strictly to party manifesto. I can assure you that in the next few months, you will begin to see massive projects this administration will bring out. What you least expected to see in 21st Century Lagos will surface,” Balogun stated.

A former member of the Lagos State House of Assembly and outdoor advertising giant, Mr. Ipoola Omisore, also dismissed apprehensions over possible Ambode treatment to Sanwo-Olu, noting that apart from being two different persons, the most important thing about the incumbent is he has never been in conflict with anybody.

“You may agree or disagree, leadership position is about conflict management. Sanwo-Olu has been able to manage conflict very well close to three years. He does not have issues with the party leadership unlike Ambode, who at a point had altercations with his former boss, Babatunde Fashola, the Minister of Works.”

Although Omisore said the #EndSARS crisis might not have been managed to the best of people’s expectations in Lagos, the crisis was nationwide and no single individual should be blamed for it.

The party’s spokesman, Seye Oladejo, appealed to citizens of the state and party members to put the fear of what happened in 2018 to anybody behind them, saying, Sanwo-Olu is focused and has done more than enough to deserve a second term.

Speaking on some of the achievements of the governor since 2019, Oladejo said, if one does not allow sentiment to becloud one’s sense of judgement, “the incumbent has done a lot to deserve several endorsements even from the President of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan.”

Oladejo enumerated some of Sanwo-Olu’s achievements, which he said are laudable projects, stressing that they fall in line with the party’s and Sanwo-Olu’s six-pillar ‘THEMES’ developmental agenda.

The party spokesman scored the government high on all fronts, noting that the determination to make Lagos a 21st Century Economy is reflected in the increased efficiency of government service delivery and focus on activities that have an impact on people’s livelihood.