Political offices: Between zoning formula and competence

The debate over which region should produce the next president will continue to dominate the political landscape in 2025 as politicians intensify lobbying with zoning and ethnic cards on the table. But most troubling for neutrals is the place of capacity and competence in the leadership recruitment process, SEYE OLUMIDE reports.

The call for zoning is growing louder as politicians return to the drawing board to strategise ahead of the 2027 general elections. While some politicians from the northern extraction being led by the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 general elections, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and All Progressive Congress (APC) chieftain and former governor of Kaduna State believe that their region is marginalised based on the number of years their kinsmen have governed the country since 1999. However, others disagree.

In their calculation, the North has occupied the most exalted political office for only 11 years, while the South would have spent 17 years in office by the end of President Bola Tinubu’s first term in 2027.

Breaking down the years, ex-President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was sworn in on May 29, 2007, and breathed his last on May 5, 2010 (three years), while ex-President Muhammadu Buhari completed his two terms of eight years.

However, their southern counterparts, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, spent eight years in office, followed by ex-President Goodluck Jonathan, who was in office for five years, and Tinubu will complete four years in 2027, making 17 years.

Their position is that if President Tinubu is allowed to win his re-election bid in 2027 and stay in office till 2031, the South would have occupied Aso Rock for 21 years against 11 years of the North in the presidency.

However, another dimension to the zoning argument that faults Atiku and el-Rufai’s position is that the South had occupied the presidency for more years than the South. To this school of thought, limiting the number of years each region had occupied in the office of the presidency to 1999 is a disservice to Nigerians and the country’s political trajectory. To them, the calculation should start from 1960 when politicians from the North and their kinsmen in the military took over the reign of power and skewed allocation of resources and state creation in their favour.

A public analyst, Mr Olatunde Lawson, told The Guardian: “Let me say this: I am not an advocate of zoning because of its inherent flaws, but it is going to be sad if some northern politicians are arguing that the South has governed this country more than their region. Suppose they denied their military kinsmen who manipulated everything in this country, including the number of states and local governments in their favour. Are they not enjoying those things until now to the extent of doing everything to resist significant reforms to ensure fairness to other regions?

“Did they want us to forget that Tafawa Balewa governed this country from 1960 to 1966, then General Yakubu Gowon from July 1966 to 1975, then General Murtala Muhammed from July 29, 1975 to February 13, 1976? We had Alhaji Shehu Shagari (1979-1983), Gen. Muhammadu Buhari took over from him and governed till the military putsch of August 27 1985. General Sani Abacha from 1993 to 1998.”

Although, to curb instability in the polity and growing agitation against marginalisation, following widespread protest against the annulment of the June 12 1993 presidential election won by Bashorun MKO Abiola, the founding fathers of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in 1998 adopted zoning, to rotate the presidency between the North and South, Christian and Muslim.

As the first major party to introduce zoning of positions in Article 7 of its Constitution, PDP specifically stated that it will adhere to the principle of zoning of elective offices between the various regions in Nigeria.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), also in its Article 7 made provision for zoning to promote national unity in its constitution. However, zoning has not only become a threat to Nigeria’s corporate existence but has also brought about mutual suspicion within the country’s political party structures.

Observers also believed that zoning, other than the good it was meant to achieve, is also breeding the election and selection of mediocrity at the party level into political offices. It has been placed above capacity, competence and acceptability. Again, appointment is no longer based on professionalism but on zoning sentiment.

Copious among the damages zoning appears to have also done to the general polity and governance is the sharp suspicion and negative insinuation targeted against government policies and appointments on the sentiment of zoning.

But while zoning looks innocuous and appears to be the internal mechanism of parties, its far-reaching implications have generated an intense debate that is challenging Nigeria’s unity and causing grave suspicion among the political stakeholders.

Speaking on the issue, a prolific writer, Professor Adebayo Williams, said zoning has, in a way, divided the Nigerian political elite and slowed down the country’s organic unity, contrary to what it was meant to achieve.

He said zoning has also deprived Nigerians of having a national identity, unlike in the past, when the people hardly bothered about the ethnic and or religious identity of their leaders, as long as they enjoyed dividends of governance.

The don said zoning is not working and may not work because of the retarded political elite handling the current democratic system. He pointed at Abiola, who won elections across the country and the same with the late General Murtala Muhammed, who ruled without any zone, expressing disgust about his ethnic identity.

According to him: “When Gen. Murtala Muhammed, a northerner, was assassinated, the Yoruba in the South-West were the first to troop to the streets and protested against his assassination. The present zoning system is merely encouraging change of political armed robbers in government.”

Another university don, Bamidele Badejo, said zoning has failed because those who midwifed it to resolve the distrust generated by the annulment of the June 12, 1993, election are no longer in the position of authority to nurture it. He said the progenitors of zoning cannot also control those in power today.

Badejo said zoning has failed explicitly at the state level. “No one can tell me that zoning works in Ogun State, where the Ogun West senatorial district has not produced a governor since the state was formed. Power has been rotating between Ogun Central and Ogun East, which have larger local governments and populations.  Ahead of 2027, Ogun Central is again gearing up to produce Governor Dapo Abiodun’s successor at the expense of Ogun West.”

He also pointed at Lagos, where he said Lagos West has not produced the governor of the state since 1999. He dismissed the excuse that Tinubu ruled Lagos from 1999 to 2007 on the platform of Lagos West. “History did not support that the Tinubu family is from Lagos West. That was why he could move his ticket to Lagos Central and brought back Tokunbo Afikuyomi to come and stand in for him in Lagos West. The governorship has been rotating between Lagos East and Central and, more importantly, Lagos Central. That’s why you are witnessing the struggle for the seat not barely two years after the last gubernatorial election across the senatorial zones.”

Insisting that if the political elite had adhered to the zoning principle as planned by its founding fathers, the National Chairman of African Democratic Congress (ADC), Ralph Nwosu, said Nigeria wouldn’t have been facing ethnic and religious distrust as it is currently witnessing.

While asked if zoning should be clearly stated in the constitution, Nwosu said, “To imagine that is like postulating what I know will not help. The type of leaders we have today do not have the nation’s interest at heart.”

However, Lanre Odubote, a former lawmaker who represented Lagos East in the House of Representatives, said zoning has always been a lazy way of sharing political positions.

“It has not been favourable for any sensitive development of Nigeria. Former President Obasanjo came from jail and was made president based on zoning. Erstwhile Presidents Yar’Adua, Jonathan and Buhari all became president because of zoning.”

President of the Middle Belt Forum, Birtus Pogus, said the problem with zoning is because of the insincerity of the political elite. “Zoning has never been implemented in Borno State, for instance. A particular tribe, Kanuri, has been producing governors, so the other zones are clamouring for state creation,” he said.

Pogus said there is no justification for calling for the constitution to include zoning. He also noted that the argument that zoning is jettisoning competent and capacity does not hold water. “There is no part of Nigeria that does not have quality people to rule.”

A former stalwart of the PDP, Bolaji Abdulahi, who is from the North Central, corroborated Pogus on the argument that every part of Nigeria has quality people to rule. He said putting zoning into the constitution will make it more entrenched.

He cited that North-Central, North-East and South-East are yet to produce a president in Nigeria. He said if zoning is imputed in the constitution and made broader, such marginalised regions could produce a president.

“Except that is done, I wonder how some region can produce the president with the present structure,” he added.  Warning against the danger of leaving the presidency open without zoning, a former Deputy National Chairman of PDP, Chief Bode George, said without zoning, Nigeria might explode. He also said the zoning issue will always come up in the presidential poll because the present structure and nature of Nigeria’s democracy will often warrant it.

But a gubernatorial aspirant in Imo State, David Mbamara, said zoning has become part of the present democracy, and it is a significant factor in determining candidates not only in the presidential poll but also at the state level. He said the North will not joke with zoning. “That’s why all the stakeholders in the PDP from the North ganged up against Jonathan’s re-election in 2015.

“I think we should leave zoning if we do not want this country to implode. As we journey into 2027, I am yet to see how President Tinubu will not be re-elected.”