How new migration policy affects Nigerians, Britain’s economy

Britain has been faced with addressing issues around legal migration as it runs concurrently with the controversial efforts in tackling illegal migration amid diplomatic complexities. In navigating the path of its controversial migration policy, international students, including Nigerians, and their dependants have been affected, OLUDARE RICHARDS writes.

Despite experts warning on need to stem the looming labour gaps, the government of United Kingdom, on January 1, 2024, announced, among other developments, the take-off of its plan to remove the rights of students to bring partners and children to the UK, unless the student is studying for a postgraduate research course.

The earlier announced Points Based System (PBS) also meant that some over 300,000 people who were eligible to come to the UK last year might not be able to do so in the near future. The new regulation also means the country will remove the permission for international students to switch out of their student route and into their work route to prevent abuse of the visa system.

In the year ending June 2023, approximately 968,000 people from outside the European Union migrated to the United Kingdom, 129,000 people from European Union countries, and 84,000 British nationals.

In the announcement made known via the social media channel X, the Home Office affirmed that only individuals on postgraduate research or government-sponsored scholarship students would be exempted from the development.

The Home Office said: “We are fully committed to seeing a decisive cut in migration. From today, new overseas students will no longer be able to bring family members to the UK. Postgraduate research or government-funded scholarships students will be exempt.”

The revised regulations specifically target the escalating trend of overseas students bringing dependents, a practice he described as “unreasonable”.

According to a report by The Economic Times, it revealed a staggering 930.per cent increase in dependent visas since 2019.

The British Home Secretary said the government was “completely committed to reducing levels of legal migration,” after net migration rose to 672,000 in year to the end of June 2023.

“We do need to reduce our overall numbers by eliminating the abuse and exploitation of our visa system by both companies and individuals. We are working across government on further measures to prevent exploitation and manipulation of our visa system, including clamping down on those that take advantage of the flexibility of the immigration system,” Cleverly said.

The UK government stated that students coming to study at a higher level are typically older and might be more likely to have already established a family. The report also revealed that 486,107 persons from India, China, Nigeria, the United States and Pakistan migrated to the UK for study purposes at the end of September 2023.

Data from Enroly shows that Nigeria has suffered the sharpest decline in student enrolments, dropping by 21.42 per cent in the number of CAS and visas issued when compared to September 2022. The latest report from Enroly is based on a sample of 300,000 student offers across 43 anonymised institutions, and shows some significant shifts in the distribution of CAS issuance from UKVI.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), most people arriving to the UK over the last year were non-EU nationals – a total of 968,000 – followed by 129,000 EU citizens and 84,000 British people. and -86,000 respectively, while the net figure for non-EU people was 768,000.

The UK Government earlier said: “Part of the increase in dependants is linked to the increase in main applicants but there have also been large increases in dependants of Indian and Nigerian nationals.”

“There were 60,506 dependants of Nigerian nationals in the year ending September 2023, an increase of 59,079 compared to 2019 and 9,435 more visas issued than to main applicants in the same period. Indian nationals had the second highest number of dependants, increasing from 2,127 to 43,445 in the same time period,” UK govt said.

Figures released earlier in 2023 showed that the number of dependant visas granted to Nigerians had increased significantly year-on-year, meaning that there are now more Nigerian family members of students in the UK than students.

The number of main applicant visas granted to Nigerian students in 2022 was eight times greater than in 2021 – while the number of dependant visas increased by 38 times over the same period. Enroly though explained that declines are partly driven by a collapse in the Nigerian market, where deposits and CAS/visa issued are down by 74 per cent and 76 per cent respectively. Enroly said there are indications there will also be large decline in students from the UK’s largest market, India, with deposits down 52 per cent and CAS/visa issued down by 66 per cent.”

Yet, of the categories addressed the Home Office regarding Its new immigration policy, none have had anything to do with “illegal” immigration or asylum claims.

According to a Washington Post analysis on the paradox of Britain’s immigration policy, it reported that the UK cannot cut immigration without suffering the consequences. It stated that Britain cannot keep public services working without foreign labour, especially where economic growth depends on it. Yet, there are worries that immigrants will increase demand for already threadbare supply.

On a critical note, education being one of Britain’s top exports, brings an estimated £28.8 billion ($35.6 billion) to the UK economy. It’s notable that international students fees contribute to the UK economy through its universities, which both fund teaching and subsidise domestic students.

These foreign students spending on housing, food and other services has helped local communities, and those who stay to work contribute through taxes. The Home Office noted that to prevent misuse of the visa system, overseas students will be stopped from switching from the student visa route into work routes until their studies have been completed.

An Editorial of The Guardian, Nigeria, published June 7, 2023 noted that the review of immigration policy that allows family members and dependents to accompany international students to the United Kingdom should be a wake-up call on the Nigerian authorities to address motivations for the mass exodus syndrome.

The Editorial insisted that rather than begrudge the UK government for the seemingly harsh stance, it is high time the Nigerian government took comprehensive steps to make the country liveable and a land of opportunities for the young ones.

The Editorial, however also noted that: “Restricting Nigerian students and families could strain diplomatic relations between the UK and Nigeria. Education is often seen as a bridge between nations, and such a restriction may be viewed as a barrier to bilateral relations and cooperation.
“Nigeria and the UK have a long history of diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties. Banning or restricting Nigerian families could strain these ties, leading to diplomatic tensions and potentially affecting other areas of cooperation between the two countries.

“If the UK were to implement the restriction, Nigerian students and their families may seek alternative destinations for education, such as other countries with comparable educational systems. This could lead to a shift in the preferences and choices of Nigerian students, impacting the UK’s position as a favoured international study destination.

“Moreover, if the UK were to ban or restrict Nigerian students from bringing their dependents to the UK, it could prompt other countries to impose similar restrictions on British students. This would not only restrict the mobility of British students but also hinder the exchange of knowledge, ideas, and research collaboration between different countries,” the editorial read.

Senior Research Fellow at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Dr. Kester Onor, said the UK had looked to harness the labour force of foreigners to complement the shortfall following the impact of Brexit, however, several migrant workers, especially medical professionals, moved in with their families. This also applied to international students whose financial input into the economy was at the time critical.

According to Onor, Britain remains in a migration dilemma considering the several issues in the country including fundamentalism, jihadism and uprisings that erupted following the Hamas/Israel war.

Professor of international relations at the Achievers University, Owo in Ondo state, Prof. Bola Akinterinwa, in his view of the British migration situation, said Britain does not want more of immigrants. He explained that they don’t even know what to do yet with immigrants they have in Britain and while trying to cope with immigrants already in their country, why should they encourage new ones?
“This problem of immigration is not limited to the British, it is particularly more evident in France, especially in terms of the Arab-Moslems in that country. France is playing host to the class of immigrants than any country in Europe.
“Besides, landed immigrants are the biggest fear of any embassy with great power including France, UK, United States etcetera,” Prof. Akinterinwa told The Guardian.

Prof. Akinterinwa said UK has had immigration problems for a long time, particularly, since time of Brexit. When the British first sought membership of the European Economic Community in the 60s before it was later called the European Community. The Community later became the European Union following the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, the foundation treaty which had profound impact on European integration.

The British were not admitted earlier in the 1960s as a result of the policy stance of President Charles de Gaulle of France. It was only from January 1, 1973 that the admission of Britain was made possible following the departure of Charles de Gaulle.

Prof. Akinterinwa further narrated that two years after Britain’s admission to the European Community under the Conservative government of Edward Heath, a Referendum on the European Community, also known as the Common Market Referendum took place June 1975 in the United Kingdom to gauge support for the country’s continued membership of the three European Communities.

The manifesto for the October 1974 general election had promised that the people would decide through the ballot box whether to remain in the EC. Britain narrowly got support for continued membership of the EC. At the time of the referendum in June 1975 the UK was just one of nine member states that made up the European Communities.

The Referendum was the only national referendum to be held on the UK’s relationship with Europe until the 2016 ‘Brexit Referendum’ on continued EU membership.

The irony of the European Community membership for Britain was that it must open its doors to free movement of people and goods from the Community. That economic cooperation effort, Prof. Akinterinwa said, was the genesis of Britain’s issues with immigration as a foreign policy.

He said the issue of the British looking at foreigners coming from Eastern Europe became a matter for policy debate. This was ahead of the second plebiscite.

Prof. Akinterinwa said the British believed much in their greatness, not only in name, but in every sense of it as father of industrialization that in their desire for self identity, they decided for Brexit. “The EU at this time had become a super national authority wielding policy directions for member states, many of which the British found difficult to comply with. This is how the anti-foreigner direction in Britain started,” Akinterinwa explained.

He pointed out that already, “Britain had a policy that distinguished between home and foreign students. The home students do not pay as much as the foreign students. This, in itself, is discrimination against immigrants.”

An example of Prof. Akinterinwa’s view is where international students would pay as much as £30,000 a year while home students pay £9,000. The reality infact is that international students make a significant contribution to British universities which actually supports the creation of more opportunities for domestic students, not fewer.

Secondly, a not insignificant number of university programmes run at narrow margins that meant overseas students on the programme is the difference between the programme running at all or closing down.

Lastly, even in institutions with large numbers of highly selective programmes, those overseas students are contributing very significantly more than 100 per cent of the university’s surplus and directly funding capital investment that enables the expansion of those programmes in future years.

However, concerns are already being raised on how UK universities would grapple with declining admissions and revenues from foreign students, following the implementation of the dependant visa ban policy.

In contrast to January 2023 figures, deposit payments, a critical indicator, have plummeted ahead of the January 2024 enrolment by 52 per cent, Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuance by 64 per cent, and visa issuance has seen even more drastic decline by 71 per cent.

Insights from admissions tech solution Enroly reveal that despite a 4.8% overall increase in CAS issuance for UK universities, there have been decline in enrolments from Nigeria and Nigeria across a sample of 43 institutions in September 2023.

Director of international development at Northumbria University, Rob Carthy, said the university has seen substantial reduction in Nigerian student numbers and we are already having those conversations about diversity”, Carthy said.

The Enroly data also reveals the dependance of UK universities on a relatively small number of global education agencies. Agent-recruited applications to the UK accounted for 58 per cent of all students, rising to 71 per cent of applicants who received a CAS or visa. The top agents account for 9.85 per cent of all international students with a CAS/Visa issued for the UK, with 25.22.per cent of all students coming from the top 5 agents, and 33.per cent from the top 10.

In recent years, the largest master agents have all become multi-destination specialists with many of the UK representatives rebranding or diversifying, meaning UK universities are competing on a global scale, even within their trusted recruitment partners.

According to Paul Richmond, Managing Partner at Richmond Chambers UK, the highlight change is the substantial increase in the minimum salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas, rising nearly 50 per cent from £26,200 to £38,700 per annum. While Health and Care Workers will remain exempted from the increase, this adjustment poses challenges for businesses, particularly those heavilyreliant on sponsoring lower-paid skilled workers.

The increase, exceeding the median UK salary, may lead to difficulties in recruitment for sectors like hospitality, where an estimated 95.per cent of sponsored visas for roles such as chefs and managers could fail to meet the new threshold.

“In our analysis, 210 out of the 225 occupation codes that are eligible for a Skilled Worker visa (excluding health and education occupation codes) will be impacted by the increase in the minimum salary threshold, as the going rate in these 210 occupation codes is currently less than £38,700 (assuming a 37.5 hour working week).

“We calculate that minimum salaries for jobs falling within these 210 occupation codes will need to increase by between 1 per cent and 47.7.per cent to satisfy the new minimum. Of the 210 occupation codes facing an increased general salary threshold, workers whose jobs fall within 116 (55 per cent) of these occupation codes will need to be paid a minimum salary that is at least 47.7.per cent higher than under current arrangements (again assuming a 37.5 hour working week),” Richmond said.

He said since the going rate is calculated on the basis of a 37.5 hour working week and must be pro-rated based on the weekly working hours stated on the certificate of sponsorship (CoS), the new arrangements will put pressure on employers to increase the working hours of sponsored workers, either as an alternative to paying higher salaries or to offset some of the additional cost.

That said, as the Migration Observatory has pointed out, it is also true that the elevated £38,700 requirement for long-term skilled work visas impacts only a limited segment of recipients. Specifically, approximately half of the 208,000 Skilled Worker visas granted to primary applicants in the year ending September 2023 were allocated to care workers and senior care workers. Notably, these groups are exempted from the salary increase. Additionally, another 20.per cent of visas were issued to individuals in health or teaching roles, and they remain unaffected by the new requirement as their salaries are determined based on nationally agreed pay scales.

Consequently, the repercussions of the increase to the skilled worker minimum salary threshold will be felt by the remaining occupations, constituting approximately 30.per cent of visa grants, predominantly situated in the private sector. Even for this category of workers though, it’s worth noting that many migrants occupying these positions already earn salaries surpassing the newly established £38,700 threshold.

As the Migration Observatory has observed, the impact of the raise will, therefore, be most noticeable in middle-skilled occupations, such as butchers and chefs, where typical salaries hover around £26,000, mirroring the existing salary threshold. Small businesses, particularly those beyond London and the South East, generally offer slightly lower pay, making them also more susceptible to the impact of the heightened threshold.

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said existing evidence shows that public opinion is divided when it comes to migration. The Observatory noted that the level of opposition is remarkably different depending on whether respondents are asked if they think that immigration is a good or a bad thing for Britain compared to when they are asked whether the migration inflows to the UK should be increased, reduced or remain the same.

In its most recent survey, it observed that 32 per cent thought immigration was a very bad or a bad thing, while 52 per cent thought their numbers should be reduced a little or a lot. These differences likely reflect the fact that people are thinking about different phenomena (current immigration inflows vs. overall impact of immigration) for each of the two questions.

Over a third of people (36 per cent) think that the migration of low-skilled workers to the UK should be made more difficult, but people expressed more liberal views when asked about migrants in specific jobs that are considered low-skilled, including care, farm and construction workers.

Younger people and people with university degrees tend to express more positive attitudes towards immigration than older people and people with lower levels of education. Also, Labour voters tend to express more positive attitudes towards immigration than Conservative voters, the Observatory noted.

The Observatory added that the concerns about immigration declined after the 2016 Brexit Referendum, but salience may have been on the rise again. The rise in net migration to the U.K. in a new record high of 672,000 comes four years after the Conservatives pledged to cut it to a third of that level.

Cutting on legal migration was a key pledge in the Conservatives’ last election manifesto, with the party promising that “overall numbers” of migrants would come down from their 2019 level of about 226,000 people a year. Instead numbers have trebled over the course of the parliament.