Thriving in disruptive times

We are living in interesting times when you are not sure of what may happen tomorrow. Things are more likely to change than being the same. Some things may happen and suddenly disrupt our plans. Those sudden changes and disruptions can kill a business or career. Russia-Ukraine war, which broke out on February 24, 2022 has driven millions of people into serious poverty. One of the ways to navigate disruptive times is to become a strategic leader.

What makes a strategic leader is the ability to adapt both normal and rapidly changing situations. Strategic leaders pivot quickly and expect changes and prepare for them.

Strategic foresight helps us to be sensitive, today, about the changes that may take place in the future, both the ones we can project from current known factors and the ones that are beyond the range of our thinking or imagination at moment.

Strategic foresight is about the decisions and actions that we are taking currently to avert disruptions that are likely to take place in the future. We may need to ask ourselves, what events are likely to disrupt your plans in 2025, so that, we prepare ahead of time? Strategic leaders think ahead of time and can make projections from five to 10 years, and above, knowing that the future is created today. They interpret signals from the future often referred to as “weak signals,” which are early indications or hints of potential changes and emerging trends. These signals can reveal opportunities and threats long before they become apparent to the broader market, providing a crucial advantage in decision-making and strategic planning.

Strategic leaders sense, interpret and act on weak signals. Zacchaeus is a good example of a strategic leader who knew ahead of time that his small stature would prevent him from seeing Jesus when he would be passing, so, he ran ahead of the crowd to avoid the likely outcome that may take place.

We are generally blind to the unexpected and that is why a lot of things take us by surprise. Before anything happens, the small signals usually give signs of their coming, but we ignore them. For example, Kodak (the king of photography and videography) ruled the world of photography in the 80s and 90s, but the management never saw the shift from printing pictures to digital pictures. The company’s inability to innovate in the age of digital photography, lack of strategic planning and leadership and failure to adapt to changes in the market led to the company’s demise.

The company declared itself bankrupt in 2012. How do we avoid being blind sighted in 2025? We should follow trends and happenings around our environment, so, as to be able to sense and interpret the weak signals as they are coming. Shell has prospered both in good times and bad times because they were able to interpret the weak signals and prepare for changes before they happen.

Another way to prepare for sudden changes and disruptions is by Scenario Planning. Scenario Planning has been used over decades by governments, businesses,non-governmental and not-for-profit organisations. Across each of these sectors, examples like the Singapore government, Shell Global and the UK National Council for Voluntary Organisations show the value attached to scenario planning. Scenario Planning helps you identify multiple potential future scenarios (both positive and negative) and how to prepare for them in advance. It is a process through, which business leaders strategise for unknown variables. For example, all of a sudden you are fired — unknown variable — what will you do next?
• Today’s nugget: A wise person with foresees danger coming. Phone contact: 07032361509. E-mail: [email protected]
Joel Ejiofor, Business Coach and Strategist