By Chinedum Uwaegbulam and Victor Gbonegun
• To generate jobs through $80b capital investments in power
• Target N15.8 billion investments in renewable energy sources
• Project 65,000m litres of biofuel per year
The Federal Government’s shift to a greener economy could create 14.1 million new jobs by 2035 if the country adopts sustainable practices, new climate policies and commitments.
With over 70 million Nigerians in search of jobs and an unemployment rate of about five per cent as of 2024 according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the green and circular economy opens a wide spectrum of job opportunities in recycling, forestry, renewable energy, transportation and logistics green building, agriculture and others in the value chain.
The green jobs are riding on the back of Nigeria’s revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) climate change mitigation sectors such as energy (power), oil and gas, agriculture, transport, industry, and water. Both agricultural and water sectors are also considered for adaptation actions.
Among climate measures that will engender investment and financial flows are ending gas flaring by 2030; implementing off-grid solar PV of 13GW (13,000MW); installing efficient gas generators; achieving 2 per cent per year energy efficiency improvements (30 per cent by 2030); shifting transport from car to bus; improving electricity grid; and implementing climate-smart agriculture and reforestation.
According to the Nigeria Green Job Assessment report, promoted by the Federal Government, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and International Labour Organisation (ILO), the government would adopt short to medium-term effects, the long-term structural change through policies to ensure overall positive employment and economic growth effects, which are projected beyond 2035.
Some policies offer significant employment creation potential even without major investments. A policy that would incentivise climate-smart agricultural production systems could add some three million net jobs across the economy.
Policies to increase power generation have the greatest effect in terms of the total number of jobs created.
Between 2020 and 2035, these policies are projected to add around 12 million net additional jobs across the economy compared to a baseline scenario.
The significant increase in employment should be interpreted in light of the significant capital investments ($80 billion), which generate massive job opportunities in construction and installation in the short to medium term.
However, a significant number of jobs are created through biofuel and cement policies, which are projected to create some 800,000 jobs each, while investments in energy efficiency would increase job opportunities across the economy by some 350,000.
Investing in the efficiency of the iron and steel industry and the water industry would create some 65,000 jobs and 35,000 jobs, respectively.
Public transport adds some 25,000 net additional employment opportunities. The tree planting initiative would create around 20,000 jobs and the roll-out of clean cookstoves would generate 10,000 net jobs.
Comparing scenarios in terms of their job creation and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential per million dollars invested shows that the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector (combining the climate-smart agricultural policy and the 25 million tree planting programme) generate the highest job multiplier.
Forestry has the highest job creation potential, notably for low-skilled agricultural workers. Tree planting is highly labour-intensive and creates close to 290 net full-time equivalent jobs per million dollars invested up to 2035. A $1 million investment in biofuel production stimulates the economy-wide creation of around 230 jobs.
This compares to between 17 and 28 jobs resulting from energy and efficiency investments in iron and steel. Cement and public transport policies create some 78 and 86 jobs respectively, per million dollars invested. Water efficiency investments, which are categorised together with waste management, have a similar job multiplier as renewable energy, creating some 164 and 158 jobs, respectively, per million dollars invested.
Afforestation and reforestation offer low-cost solutions, as does implementing the widespread use of improved cookstoves. A $1 million investment in the production of energy-efficient cookstoves and tree planting would reduce GHG emissions by some 32 and 37 tonnes, respectively. A biofuels policy would reduce GHG emissions by some 15 tonnes. Energy and water efficiency investments have even larger effects – more than 40 tonnes of GHG per million dollars invested.
The assumptions are that investments of N15, 840 billion in renewable energy sources will enhance electricity generation by about 120 per cent by 2030. In transport sector, the plan is for the establishment of a 65,000 million litres per year biofuel plant with an initial investment funding of $3.6 billion and expansion of bus rapid transit lanes, as well as the purchase of 5,000 public mass transit buses, for a total expenditure of $309 million (assuming $40,000/bus, 2/3 bus purchase and 1/3 investment in roads).
There is also a plan to introduce clean cooking solutions as efficient wood/charcoal stoves yearly are expected to save 66 per cent/33 per cent fuel and enable a switch from firewood to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the service sector, reducing firewood use by 66 per cent.
Among the projections is an investment in 6.5 million improved wood stoves (clay/metal) at NGN 350 each, 6.5 million modern efficient cookstoves at N6, 500 each, and five million LPG cookstoves at N19,500 each.
There is also a proposal to plant 25 million trees at $2.70/tree (total investment $67.5 million), growing seedlings over two years, planting over two years. The assumption is for tropical trees to sequester 22.6 kg of carbon per year and ensure efficiency in iron and steel production, with total investments of $3,797 million.
The Africa Regional Coordinator, Citizen Climate lnternational, Dr Michael David, argued that the green economy is a crucial sector, creating thousands of jobs for Nigerians.
He pointed out that in the area of green job growth; it has been largely through renewable energy, especially solar. David said many businesses had been created as a result of the use of renewable energy in the country.
However, he raised concerns that Nigeria is not benefiting much from the opportunity because solar system components are imported into the country, adding that the country is losing foreign exchange (FX).
David said the green job sector looks promising for Nigeria and remains an area that the government could take advantage to cut costs economically and save the environment, through pollution reduction, and GHG emissions.
He further said there is a need for a policy to standardise the sector as people import substandard equipment into the country, especially solar accessories.
Past president, Renewable Energy Association of Nigeria, Mr Segun Adaju, said different value chains within the sector, ranging from local manufacturers and assembling, logistics and transportation, retailing and distribution to different outlets, freelancers and marketers, are job offerings for many Nigerians between the age brackets 18 to 35.
“Most of our agents are youths, who have left secondary school and those with higher qualifications. There are installers, engineers and technicians being trained from time to time. Beyond deployment of renewable energy technology, there are also other beneficiaries,” he said.
According to him, if one megawatt of solar is deployed in the industry, it can generate about 500 additional job opportunities. He said the on-grid technology offers more jobs than the off-grid.
However, he observed that standardisation and lack of finance are still issues in the industry as some people import less quality products. He said the Standard Organisation of Nigeria (SON) should ensure standards in the industry. Despite these challenges, he said the sector holds a lot of promises in the future.
The North Central Coordinator, Recyclers Association of Nigeria, Mr Femi Owoeye, pointed out that green job, especially from recycling activities are growing daily.
According to him, the association has over 5,000 members and for every kilogramme of waste recycled, an average of 15 jobs is created. “Across the country, an estimated 20,000 and above persons have been employed through recycling initiatives,” he said.
Owoeye said logistics has remained a major challenge for recycling because it involves movement of the products.
“We are seeing a growth in the green jobs available but the larger percentage of job created are for low-skill green jobs. There is still need for high capacity individuals to join the recycling business,” he said.
