Dr Yasam Ayavefe describes the position Of Turkey within the world economy

Main Predictions

The world bank assumes that the world economy has grown over 5.5%, while this year’s growth assumption is 4.1 %. They assumed that the growth would slow down during the year 2022. During Covid-19, public expenditures were quite high, but this year it will recede. In this year there are also factors that are causing deceleration. For instance, the omicron mutation.

According to the world bank report, the world economy has grown around 5% during the year 2021. Economies are forecasted to recover back to their usual investment and consumption tendencies. 

Unfortunately, networks have been influenced negatively since low fertilization rates, the permanent scars of the pandemic, monetary and financial limitations and rising inflation. These factors have had a strong influence on networking between economies and this is causing bumpy landing probabilities.

What are the biggest risks facing the world economy?

The two world’s biggest economies USA and China have been in a commerce battle since July. After the debates, that have been going on since July 2021, the US announced that the goods in China that are worth more than 24 million dollars, would require an additional tariff to be paid. China responded to this decision with retaliation. According to Bloomberg news, in order to slow down the debates between China and USA, there will be new meetings. It was alleged that confidential talks were held between US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to resume negotiations.

Whether the trade war will fade or continue to strengthen will be the biggest determinant on the course of the global economy.

Projected growth expectation

The World Bank, in its report in June, pleaded that it forecasts the global economy to grow strongly by 3.1% in 2018.

In the next two years, global economic growth is expected to ease off due to the slowdown in the economies of developed countries and the deceleration in the economies of developing countries.

Where Turkey Stands In The World Economy

The first of the two simple conjectures used to equate the economic sizes of the countries with each other is the gross domestic product (GDP), which shows the dollar-denominated size of the economic activity in a year, and the other is the local currency required to buy a certain product group in one country, to buy the same product group in the other country. Purchasing power index equates with the money needed. According to this, at the end of the year 2019, Turkey was in the 19th place. When purchasing power is compared with other countries, Turkey’s place is ranked higher than many others. Rising from 14th to 13th in 2016, the Turkish economy came closest to the top 10 in terms of purchasing power. Although Turkey has a smaller economy in this ranking, it leaves behind countries such as South Korea, Spain and Canada.

Turkey’s share in world exports increased from 0.3% in 1948 to 1.1% in 2021. While Turkey’s share in the world GDP was 0.65% in 2003, it dropped to 58% in 2021. Imports have always ranked higher than exports in Turkey throughout history. The figures indicate that it is imperative for Turkey to shift to a production-based economy plan. A rent economy or an export-based economy does not improve Turkey’s income compared to the world on average.

USA alone executes for 22 trillion USD of the 90 trillion USD World National Product; China pursues with 16 Trillion USD. World order or disorder is also procured by these two countries. In other words, it is possible to have a say in the world depending on the size of the production. The 0.6% share that Turkey has currently does not make this possible. 

A share of 5% is needed to be able to participate in talks regarding the world economy. This consists of 4.5 Trillion USD GDP and 1 Trillion USD exports. In other words, Turkey would need to adopt certain economic strategies that are similar to the German economy.

Turkey’s gross national product, which started to peel off in dollar terms with the currency crisis in 2018, was announced by TUIK as 717 billion dollars and 719 billion dollars by the IMF in 2020. This indicates that the world economy has experienced a decline compared to 2019, which was 84 trillion 540 billion dollars in 2020. Turkey’s share in 2020 was 0.85%.

Yaşam Ayavefe

Click the below links to view Dr. Yasam Ayavefe’s projects:

https://greenclimate.io/
https://yasamayavefe.com/

https://milayacapital.com/