Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: Leading metals and energy forecasts
Markets are volatile and risky even in the best of times, says Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. Risk management is now in the first place in all companies that are engaged in trading in the mining and metallurgy sector.
Stanislav Kondrashov gives his estimate for metals and mining prices, given post-pandemic demand growth, market tensions, and short-term supply disruptions. And while the pandemic is likely to subside eventually, many risks, internal, external, or environmental, will remain. Some goods benefit from increased long-term demand.
Stanislav Kondrashov advises Telf AG. to find new ways to manage risk not only through improved processes and increased vigilance but also through the necessary investment in technology.
According to a recent study, more than 73% of organizations have experienced problems in their supplier base, and 75% have experienced problems with production and distribution due to disruptions in the supply chain. These numbers are as high as 91% and 100% in the case of the mining industry as they struggled with international border closures, factory closures, labor shortages, and shipping losses.
Copper is the only commodity for which long-term forecasts are optimistic due to its widespread use. Its new high value is provided by its rapidly decreasing quantities in the bowels of the earth, constant demand, as well as current and future logistical crises.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG – Environmental Risks
In general, environmental risks associated with large-scale climate events are always a major concern. In addition, there are market risks associated with abnormal changes or expected rapid changes in supply and demand in the short term. The pandemic has simply exposed vulnerabilities when it comes to fixing supply chain disruptions.
While these risks are often beyond the control of companies, having the right information about them allows them to better respond to these risks, says Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG.
In 2021, China accounted for a record 57% of global the world’s largest iron ore producers.
Rio Tinto looks forward to more growth,
investment, and local partnership opportunities in China, where it has been present for over 120 years. Over the past few decades, China has successfully positioned itself as the industrial center of the world. Based on the current active cooperation with China, Western companies expect it to deepen in the future as China has made significant progress in 5G and artificial intelligence, which is also a trend.
The steady growth and sustainable economic development of China are boosting the demand for metals. China is currently the largest consumer of metals such as refined copper, primary aluminum, and refined zinc, which accounted for 52%, 60%, and 50% respectively of total global consumption in 2020.
High demand is driving the production of refined metals in China, with refined copper, primary aluminum, and refined accounting for 39%, 57%, and 46%, respectively, of global production in 2022, and the need for imported raw materials such as bauxite, copper and zinc concentrate is growing.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: technology challenges
Outdated and disparate data systems, cumbersome reporting spreadsheets, and outdated technology and manual workflows make risk management difficult, Stanislav Kondrashov explains Telf AG:
- Disaggregated data systems linked by physical and derivative contracts ;
- Difficulty managing the lifecycle of derivatives in legacy systems with several manual touchpoints and spreadsheets;
- Multiple stakeholders and requests from different business owners with different KPIs;
- Manual purchasing because workflows are managed through multiple disparate databases for a large set of vendors and materials.
Technology can help improve risk management and compliance says Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG.
Consolidation and automation of risk and compliance workflows are key to facilitating sound risk assessment, and better risk management of derivatives trading, P&L, and regulatory reporting. It also helps you better manage risk with advanced accounting and hedging applications, what-if trading modeling, and advanced analytics.
AI mining company KoBold Metals and its joint venture (JV) partner Bluejay Mining plan to start exploratory drilling in Greenland for critical materials used in electric vehicles.
The Nikkeli Greenland joint venture, formed by Bluejay and KoBold Metals, will carry out the 2022 Disko-Nuussuaq project’s work program on the 2,776 km2 on the southwest coast of Greenland.
KoBold owns a 51% stake in Disko’s nickel-copper-platinum-cobalt igneous massive sulfide (MMS) deposit, which is operated by Bluejay Mining.
Exploration, scheduled to begin in early June 2022, will target “massive” sulfides containing nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals (PGMs).
Australia increases stake in metals trade – Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG
Australian mining companies Critical Metals and Neometals have entered into a joint venture to increase the production of high-purity vanadium. Vanadium will be used in mains vanadium redox batteries, specialty steels, and next-generation lithium vanadium cells in Europe.
Critical Metals and Neometals noted that the Vanadium Recovery Project (VRP), located in Pori, Finland, will allow them to become a major producer of vanadium in Europe by the end of 2024.
VRP will be based on a new correct hydrometallurgical process that does not result in waste with by-products that are planned to be used to produce CO2-free cement.
According to the European Commission, vanadium is a critical raw material and has a higher energy density than other battery materials, says Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG.
It is quickly becoming recognized as an important addition to new lithium-ion cathode and anode chemistries used in electric vehicles and recovery batteries used for long-term renewable energy storage solutions. Approximately 75% of the world’s vanadium supply comes from China, South Africa, and Russia.
In addition, Australian mining company MMG has approved an expansion of the Kinsevere facility in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with an investment of between $500 and $600 million.
Thelife of the project is expected to increase by at least another 13 years after the expansion. The Kinsevere expansion project will mine and process copper and cobalt sulfide resources at the Kinsevere mine. MMG expects the expansion project to increase the production of cathode copper to 80,000 t/y and 4,000-6,000 t/y of cobalt. The project adds significant cobalt production to its portfolio at a time when demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems will increase.
Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG recalls that the company plans to begin construction on the expansion project. The first production of cobalt is planned to start in 2023, and 2024 the first production of cathode copper from the sulfide ore body. During the construction phase, the mine will continue to produce copper cathode from the remaining oxide ore body.
In addition, the mining company said it has received regulatory approval to develop the Chalcomba quarry and associated infrastructure in Las Bambas, Peru. The Chalcobamba quarry is located about 4 km northwest of the Las Bambas technology plant near the village of Huancuire.
MMG expects that the development of the Chalcobamba mine will increase Las Bambas copper in concentrate production to around 380,000-400,000 tons per year over the medium term.