Africa in a turbulent world

I am delighted to be part of the 2023  annual lecture series of the  Society for International Relations Awareness (as a discussant)  put together by its highly resourceful and energetic President, Comrade Owei Lakemfa, veteran journalist, renowned columnist, a leading socio-political influencer and  former general secretary of OATUU. It is a fitting tribute to his organisational ability and the  growing list of his network that today’s  event is being  chaired by the highly-regarded Ambassador-Emeritus, Ambassador Brownson Dede and another equally highly-regarded Ambassador-Emeritus, Ambassador John Kayode Shinkaiye and  Dr Kayode J. Fayemi, immediate past governor of Ekiti State (now lecturer at one of the Ivy-league universities in London) as the lecturer in the massive auditorium of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs brimming with serving and retired diplomats and other distinguished guests. It attests to the seriousness of today’s business.

In my view, there are three assumptions pertaining to the topic of discussion – Africa in the turbulence of a world in search of direction. The first is that the world is in a state of turbulence distinctly unique from previous turbulences. The second is that the world is in need of a direction. The third is where Africa is expected to be in the midst of it all.

Turbulence is a natural phenomenon that has engaged Physics over time and will continue to be of interest to mankind for its “chaotic behaviour” and it’s “complex, a-periodic and deterministic” mood (John Lumley: Cornell University). Turbulence is associated with cataclysm or instability of tsunamic proportions but of transient nature and attributed to “…the instabilities of some basic luminar flow” (Ai-Kady Tsinober: Research Gate).  Serious work on turbulence is said to have begun sometime between 1889 and 1903 (Francois. G. Schmitt).

In summary, “turbulence is a state of confusion and disorganised change”  which the Collins Dictionary sums up as “confusion, turmoil, unrest and instability”. 

However, we are gathered here today not to talk about geological formations or malformations or physics in quest of predictions or interpretations of their make-up but extreme or severe violent situations or grave  multi-dimensional  social disorder created by our politics, decisions, greed, selfishness and self-righteousness.

Indeed there cannot but be turbulence “in a world consumed by displays and the ceaseless chatter of fast inter action, the melodic elegance and emotional symphony”, writes Go-Ramblers.com.

Turbulence occurs as a result of collision of ideas, beliefs, policies, hegemonies or civilisations in pursuit of power. Turbulence has been with us since man started organising himself into society(ies) and conquering his environment. The resultant effects have been massive disruptions of systems, indescribable destructions, and often the collapse of empires and emergence of new ones.

In the 20th century alone there were two world wars that led to consequential global power shift, the collapse of  Ottoman and British empires respectively. Preceding the wars were other wars in Europe, Africa and Asia, though of lesser magnitude and destruction but nonetheless of great significance. In the much older world, Mali, Ghana, Songhai empires collapsed as indeed Greek and Roman due to a combination of reasons already adduced, lending credence to the Mats Berdal summation that “Attempts to comprehend, through empirical inquiry and philosophical reflection, the likely effects of deeper, seemingly unstoppable processes of socio-economic change on patterns of violent conflict within and across societies are not new” (How “New” Are “New Wars”? Global Economic Change and the Study of Civil War).

Indeed, under the watch of the UN, we had one of the longest and most intense ideological confrontations in history with over a dozen proxy wars to the bargain…the clash between the West and the East, capitalism and socialism. The collapse of the Soviet Union which effectively marked the end of socialism as a global fighting force did not necessarily lead to a peaceful world either, reinforcing my belief that turbulence is inherently part of human nature.  In fact, while Russia was nursing its wounds (from the collapse of Soviet Union), China was re-strategising and re-positioning, preparatory to launching itself on the global stage as an economic super power. Today, it is both an economic and military super power.

From the ashes of the Soviet empire, Putin, a thoughtful and proud Russian, over time rebuilt and repositioned Russia as a global military force to rival the U.S. military might even as Colin Powell (Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff) had said then that only the size of the Russian empire had changed, that Russia had the wherewithal (like the U.S.) to destroy the world within 15 minutes. Today, Russia has   a nuclear arsenal second to none. This in itself has always been considered a threat by the West despite the fact that Russia had “opened” up.  

Some, however, hold the view that the immediate and more significant threat has been the triumphal mentality of the West under the leadership of the U.S., which against all grains of wisdom and in utter violation of agreement reached with Russia (not to expand the NATO frontiers), has all but annexed the former member-states of the great Soviet Union in the name of NATO membership, a move Russia persistently protested against on the basis of national security concerns but was ignored.  Putin captures the mood here thus:”The history of the West is essentially the chronicle of endless expansion. Western influence in the world is an immense military and financial pyramid scheme that constantly needs more “fuel” to support itself, with natural, technological and human resources that belong to others. This is why the West simply cannot and is not going to stop. Our arguments, reasoning, calls for common sense or proposals have simply been ignored” (his address to the plenary session of the 20th meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi 2023).

However, attempts to make Ukraine a NATO member have  not gone on very well and today we have a hot war between NATO and Russia  in its second year even as Putin exonerates Russia of blame: “We are compelled to respond to ever increasing military and political pressure…It was not us who started the so-called ‘war in Ukraine’…” (his address to the plenary session of the 20th meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi 2023).

It has been a war into which virtually everything (boots, projectiles, technology etc) from at least 35 countries has been thrown (32 from the West and three from the East).
To be continued tomorrow.

•Upah is a public affairs and leadership analyst.