Getting prepared for the days ahead

As things stand, especially with the assumptions in the 2025 budget bill presented by President Tinubu to the National Assembly last week, today’s economic hardship may very well extend into next year and beyond.

With a forex benchmark of N1,500 to the dollar, the promise to force down inflation rate from 34.6 to 15 per cent within one year sounds good, but the challenge is in the how. With petrol selling at over N1,000 per litre and diesel much more, citizens are eager to know the magic that will force down inflation rate by half.

Energy costs, including electricity tariff remain a major driver of inflation and the budget does not envisage any lowering of prices. At the end of the day, the budget might seem huge on paper but empty in implementation and delivery, lacking in any imaginative capacity to restore peace and prosperity for millions of Nigeria.

Government is still struggling with the 2024 budget, whose lifespan a complicit National Assembly has elongated to June 2025, with capital projects not implemented up to 50 per cent. A part of the 2023 (Supplementary Budget) is still being implemented in some road projects. This government in just two years has become notorious for fiscal indiscipline, earning so much (despite devaluation) and spending little on the welfare of the people.

The result is that millions of Nigerians are poorer and hungrier today than they were in December 2023, when headline inflation rate was 28.92 per cent. Given the antecedents, it won’t be an exaggeration to prophesy harder times in the days ahead, for the majority of citizens.
Let’s take for instance, agriculture. Before the budget presentation fanfare, the House of Representatives last week, launched a probe into a N141 billion contract agreement signed by the Federal Government to deliver 2,000 tractors and 100 combined harvesters.

The House lamented that the tractors were yet to be delivered one year after and mandated its committee on Agricultural Production and Services to investigate the deal signed with John Deere Tractors; and another sum signed for the establishment of a tractor assembly plant, together with delivery cost as well as sales, after-sales services, spare parts and training for mechanised service providers.

The second agreement was signed by the Federal Government with the AFTRADE DMCC, under the Presidential Food Security Initiative and Hope Agricultural Mechanisation Drive. In it, a number of tractors are expected to be delivered annually, in addition to knowledge transfer.

In July 2023, and after the president removed petrol subsidy (Tinubu petrol tax), without measures in place to mitigate the impact, hunger began to ravage the land. In response, a state of emergency on food security was announced. More than one year has passed after they appropriated fund for the contract, and the lawmakers are asking why it had not been executed.

This government promised to make agricultural mechanisation the tool to boost food production nationwide. The promise was to utilise fuel subsidy proceeds to cushion food inflation in the immediate, short and long term.

The President ordered a release of 200,000 metric tons of grains and other farming input to households; as well as the disbursement of N200 billion to cultivate 500,000 hectares of staple crops. Another N50 billion was to be invested in 150,000 hectares of rice and maize and another N50 billion to cultivate 100,000 hectares of wheat and cassava. Food inflation even went higher.

The government also said it had launched a massive nationwide rice distribution of 740 trucks to the 36 states, to cushion the hunger pestilence. The Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris, announced that each of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) was set to receive 20 trucks of rice, with each carrying approximately 1,200 25kg bags. Later, it was announced that government would supply rice, which citizens could buy at N40,000 per bag, through states.

It turned out from the experiences reported across the country that the Renewed Hope target for increased food production was more of pronouncements than actual cultivation and production. There are concerns that though the 2025 proposed budget is big, lawmakers have to scrutinise it and do their oversight very well for the people to benefit from it.

Unfortunately, at a time more critical parliaments in far serious countries are tackling their governments, promoting citizens’ welfare and reduction in living costs, this 10th NASS has engaged more in siding with an underperforming executive.

As we write, transportation fares have gone haywire, both on land and on air. Rice has remained an expensive food item for many, selling at over N100,000 per 50kg bag. This is despite the import tax waivers announced in August 2024 for rice, corn, wheat and other food items until December 31, 2024.

There is no impact of these waivers on prices as millions of Nigerians celebrate Christmas. Let the lawmakers engage the 2025 appropriation with the seriousness of the hardship in town. Let citizen’s welfare be their prime responsibility, instead of their re-election in 2027, which also appears to be a priority for Mr. President, who farcically pronounced all of the lawmakers re-elected to underplay a major gaffe.

It is inconceivable, that the President will refer to the 10th National Assembly as the 11th, despite the crowd of experienced communication experts hired by government and serviced by taxpayers. Even the Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, a former Speaker of the House, couldn’t spot that embarrassing error. The lawmakers also jumped for joy, that their tenure had been elongated without an election. Jokers!

But let nobody take that as a harmless joke. It is out of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaks. The Secretary to the Federal Government, George Akume as well as other notable big men in government and in their All Progressives Congress (APC), continue to assault and drum it that there’s no vacancy in Aso Rock when we’re still in 2024; when this government is yet to deliver quality governance to the people.

As far as they are concerned, elections don’t matter and service delivery is no longer a pre-requisite for rewarding performance. Whether the people like it or not, 2027 is a done deal and they are going to crown Asiwaju Tinubu for another unearned term. Really?

That’s an affront on democracy and to citizens whose right to determine their leaders is too fundamental to be stolen by a political class that is untouched by the people’s sufferings. That is not the reason for government. And to those on the other side who are parading as opposition, this is the time to get your acts right.

The other day, former President Obasanjo met with former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso and former governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke. According to Kwankwaso, they engaged in meaningful discussions on the Nigerian nation, focusing on national issues and the future of politics in the country.

The former president may appear restless and grating over the failing state of affairs in the country. Like millions of citizens, he is not comfortable with the poor performance this government has recorded across board, particularly with regard to people’s welfare. Obasanjo cannot keep quiet in the face of state capture. Some say the man is meddlesome, yes, that’s his calling as a statesman. He has seen it all, in military life and in the civil space.

However, for the renewed effort to achieve a result, the opposition needs to retool. In 2023, they wasted an opportunity to form a government. Kwankwaso was particularly unyielding, always overrating his reach. If the engagement they had with Obasanjo is to yield profit on behalf of Nigeria, let Kwankwaso get down from his imaginary height and join forces with others.

Other big names outside this government that genuinely believe Nigeria needs a breath of fresh air must also surrender their inordinate quest to be president. There can only be one president at a time.

The opposition and civil society must press for reforms to make elections count. The crucial areas are appointment of electoral umpires at the federal and states. The era of allowing one man to decide who to manage the electoral body is anachronistic. There are well propounded options already debated by experts in political matters. The Justice Mohammed Uwais committee of over a decade ago also made germane submission in that regard.

There are aspects of the Constitution of the Federal Republic (1999) that should be revisited for clarity and precision. For instance, Section 109 should be re-written without ambiguities. Any lawmaker who abandons the party that brought him into office must forfeit his seat.

The constituents who voted for a lawmaker to represent them are the owners of the ticket. That should be extended to governors who take the votes they garnered from one party to another, for no elevated reason other than to destabilise the party that gave them fame and fortune.

That nonsense has to stop, so that the party system gains some strength and stability. Rivers State would have been saner today if Section 109 were disambiguated. The judiciary also has work to do to stabilise democracy.

Next year is crucial. The foundation for 2027 will be laid in 2025. Even for government, this is the time to sow in practical terms, not propaganda. This is planting season for farmers and all the imaginary hectares of land cultivated since BAT was inaugurated in 2023 must begin to have verifiable locations and IGR details.

For budget 2025 to have meaning for the people, prices of goods and services must be affordable. The unit price of a bag of cement is close to N10,000 in some locations across the country. For millions of citizens, this is what they use to measure the budget and how much government cares for them.

If the economy is doing well, the people will prosper and government will have no reason to waste money on propaganda.