Kaduna governorship: Tracing The Foggy ‘Battle’ Ahead

WITH dissimilar geography, regional idiosyncrasies and religious consciousness, Kaduna presents a thorny electoral atmosphere. Fondly called KAD by young residents, the state also has a curious blend of voter awareness and affiliations. And so, for the 2015 election, the place is set to witness a crunchy battle. Certain indicators make it so. The nation’s Vice President, Architect Namadi Sambo, hails from the state. The wave making presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) General Muhammadu Buhari (Retired) has been residing at the highbrow Unguwar Rimi quarters of the capital city. 

  There are yet other issues helping to shape the coming electoral showdown. The area known as the Southern Kaduna has been clamouring for a shot at the governorship of the state. But with the predominance of two political parties none of which is fielding a governorship candidate from there, it is left to be seen how Southern Kaduna plays the role of beautiful bride in the election. Even at that the sudden death of former Governor Patrick Yakowa and that of the region’s political playmaker, Ishaya Ballat, would definitely throw up new thinking about the politics of the state and principally where the Southern Kaduna people’s bread are better buttered. 

  And given the sensitive nature of religious concerns in the state, religion would surely play a part in voter preferences. Top of that, the fortune or misfortune of the presidential candidates of the two main parties, PDP and APC, would definitely be brought to bear on other elections, especially the governorship. The readjustment of the election timetable is also affecting the dynamics of the elections.

   While the northern part of the state tends towards the Blue and White colour of the ‘Broom’, the Central and South shows the Red and White of the ‘Umbrella’. But on the whole, Southern Kaduna remains a battleground. The state governor, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero, who is gunning for his first real election on the PDP ticket, seems to understand this political reality very well. During a recent campaign tour of the area, Yero dwelt on the issue of security. The area had witnessed some turbulent periods ranging from the Zango-Kataf uprising to the sporadic attacks by gunmen. While frowning at the determination of some people to create confusion in the state, Yero assured the people that his administration will continue to work with security agencies to not only prevent attacks on the communities, but also guaranteeing improved security. As the governor sold his candidacy with the ‘Continuity’ line, he promised to complete all ongoing projects in the area. His administration established a University of Science and Technology in Kafanchan, for which construction was in progress.

   The outcome of the 2011 governorship election in which the late Governor Patrick Yakowa beat the then Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) candidate, Haruna Sa’eed by 1,334,319 votes to 1,133,564 provides a backcloth to read the possible currents on the 2015 election. Yakowa, who benefitted from the deaths of Stephen Shekari and President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, himself had his ascension to the governorship cut shot by death. That mysterious death, which his people of Southern Kaduna still blame on the curious practice of witchcraft that has been mowing down their prominent sons, dashed the hopes of the zone to occupy the governorship seat. 

   But the narrow margin with which Yakowa beat the CPC candidate, despite the federal might showed that things are not really shaped up favourably with the ruling party. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had to reschedule the election in the state by two days following the outbreak of violence in the Southern part. And with the coming of the APC, which is an amalgam of CPC, Action Congress of Nigeria (AC.N) and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) the battle promises to be very keen. The APC governorship candidate, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, is the former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and pioneer Deputy National Secretary of APC. Both candidates are boys to big men in high offices. Yero has been Sambo’s boy right from 1997 when he worked in the Vice President’s Nalado Company, while El Rufai, not only played a key role in conscripting Buhari to the present presidential quest, but also a key member of the APC presidential candidate’s kitchen cabinet.

 Yero is burdened by his performance and distribution of his “Yero projects” for which the people of Southern Kaduna allege the abandonment of projects initiated by late Yakowa. The incumbent has to contend with the backlash of the no-contest PDP governorship primary. 

   The decision of the ruling party through the Vice President, to offer automatic tickets to elected officials is part of the challenges PDP will contend with in its declining popularity in the state. To a large extent, former Governor Ahmed Makarfi would depend on luck to win the senatorial seat back because his APC challenger, Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi, is a popular grassroots politician who crossed over to the APC and secured visible presence, which also handed him the senate ticket. But the member of House of Representatives, Isah Ashiru, who lost the governorship ticket to El Rufai, has a lot of influence, which the ruling party is currently in serious moves to harvest following his disenchantment with APC leadership over the primary election. Ashiru believes that the primary was programmed to return El Rufai. 

  In the Southern Senatorial zone where Senator Nenadi Usman is holding the PDP’s return ticket to the Senate, her people are grumbling that the senator married to muslim leader, does represent their idea of a strong voice for their cause. Southern Kaduna has been a traditional strong hold for the PDP, but things have changed a lot to redesign the voting architecture. For instance, the deaths of Yakowa and Balat, as well as the removal of Andrew Yakubu from a juicy NNPC job have combined to threaten the base.

   All eyes are set on the testy presidential contest because most of the non-committed voters seem to depend on where the pendulum swings to be swayed either to the broom or the umbrella. However, the change on election dates is affecting the initial indifference to the seeming upper hand of APC. Though the younger elements who believe in El Rufai continue to mouth support for the APC governorship candidate, most of them feel reluctant to express strong support for Buhari. This is where bandwagon may play a role such that the governorship and other elections may be hard in pining down to any political party as yet. The heat of PDP versus APC battle is very much defined in Kaduna and each side is not prepared to take chances. 

  As for El Rufai and his chances, the fall out from the APC governorship primary will haunt him. He initially hinted at immediate reconciliation efforts with his aggrieved rivals after emerging the APC candidate, but he started carrying on as a governor in waiting and abandoned genuine reconciliation. He is showing some arrogance and the recollection of his mixed bag of achievements in Abuja is currently seeping into political discourse in the state. Many fear that the APC candidate may be hard to contain as a governor. For instance, the day El-Rufai declared for governorship, his followers reportedly smashed and destroyed governor Yero’s billboards and tore his posters from the International Trade Fair Centre at Rigachikun venue of his declaration. For about five kilometers everything about PDP was devastatingly incapacitated from the venue to Kawo.

  About a forth night ago, when El-Rufai rounded up his governorship campaign, all PDP/Yero billboard in kaduna city were also destroyed, allegedly by opposition members who brandished dangerous weapons, forcing passerby to shout chant their party slogans, else they damage your car and attack you.

  For perceptive voters and those who have lived in Kaduna for long, this was not the nature of politics in the crocodile town.

  They see this alien and violent culture as coming from those who are not truly indigenes of the state, but those who have lived in Kaduna on account of being indigenes of the old Kaduna State. 

  On February 2, there were attacks on Yero’s campaign convoy at Udawa village along Birnin Gwari road. But the worst attack was the one at Bakin Ruwa, along Nnamdi Azikiwe Western Bye-pass, at 6pm same day, when thugs blocked the road massively, resulting in the death of one person and many others with varying degree of injuries. Both sides traded accusations

  More worrisome is the commitment of the political gladiators to the peace accord of February 11, when the AIG in charge of zone 7, Patrick Dukumor witnessed the signing by aspirants to ensure peace. Before El-Rufai signed, he emphasized that his party the APC cannot guaranty the reaction of its supporters if INEC dares to shift the election again. 

  Apart from arriving the venue of the peace meeting 40 minutes after Governor Yero had arrived, while the meeting had gone far, making observers to get worried over El Rufai’s scant regard for protocol, not much commitment was visible from his body language. He seems to be acting the role of governor even before the elections.

  Bringing to memory El Rufai’s previous conversations, like his famous anti-Christian tweets and his one-sided comments on the Southern Kaduna killings, allegedly by Fulanis, the urge to maintain the peace and thin balance of religious harmony in the state commends the Yero cause. 

  However one looks at the electoral environment, it is still hazy to give it to any of the two parties yet. Without doubt, KAD would prove the hotbed of electoral surprises when the election holds.