Olukoju: Regional Sentiments Can Swing Votes In Any Direction

The Vice Chancellor, Caleb University, Imota, Lagos, Prof. Ayodeji Olukoju, believes that regional socio-political groupings can influence individual choices. He spoke to SEYE OLUMIDE.

Is it right for regional socio-political groupings, Afenifere, Arewa Consultative Forum, Ohanaeze and others to identify with and endorse certain candidates?    

INDIVIDUALS cast votes in their personal capacities, but individual choices

can be influenced by group solidarity and local sentiments. However, it is presumptuous of any ethnic, religious or ethno-regional body to arrogate to itself the power to speak on behalf of an entire nationality. Their endorsements amount to mere grandstanding by some grandees seeking relevance and possible personal advantage. But such endorsements could give psychological boost to their recipients.

 Does it not run against the spirit of nationalism?

     Sub-national identities are concomitants of multi-ethnic nation-states. This is not peculiar to Nigeria or Africa. The Basques in Spain and Quebec in Canada are well-known examples of militant regionalism. The reality of such tendencies cannot be wished away but those groups must function within the ambit of the law. If properly harnessed, regional forces can be stabilizing agents in a delicately

balanced polity.

In a democracy where the electorate is supposed to be the deciding factor, of what use is a regional group in the final analysis?

  Regional sentiments come into play in national settings and can swing votes in any direction. But there is hardly any consensus even within regions, but when such occurs, it is often a result of blind sentiments or herd instinct. To be fair, the existence of such sentiments is a timely reminder to policy makers and national

officials that ours is a nation of ethnic, linguistic and religious diversity, which is often ignored by national officers with a unitarist and homogenizing mentality. Happily, separatist tendencies are being eroded by greater awareness and the building of pan-Nigerian coalitions or national parties.

Is Afenifere still potent to make a difference in 2015 after it had stopped being the southwest politburo?

  There are actually two Afenifere groupings – the mainstream Old Guard, led by Chiefs Reuben Fasoranti, Ayo Adebanjo and Olaniwun Ajayi, with Ondo State as its base, which supports the federal government of President Goodluck Jonathan; and the Afenifere Renewal Group, which is sympathetic to the mainstream Southwest power bloc led by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Chief Bisi Akande. I do not think these groups in themselves have much political influence on voting as such but have some influence as appendages of the state structures controlled by

politicians and governors sympathetic to them. In this regard, the ARG is far more potent than the other Afenifere, even with the possible addition of Ekiti State to the stable of the latter with the return of Governor Fayose.

Has President Jonathan really done enough for the Southwest to

deserve votes from the zone?

  That question can be answered in relation to the promises he made in 2011 and the expectations of the people. The zone has been consistent in its expectations – state support for education and health, infrastructure development and an equitable federation, where its peculiar interests are protected or respected by an overbearing federal government. No incumbent runs for a second term merely on the basis of promises! Ordinarily, one would have expected the President to have been inaugurating completed projects while campaigning in the region. Among those he could have completed within his six years in power are the all-important Lagos-Ibadan and Shagamu-Benin dual carriageways, a modern (electric-powered) rail service (not refurbished antiquated coaches on narrow gauge tracks) carrying

passengers in and out of the zone, and ferrying goods (containerized or otherwise) direct from the seaport to a dry port or inland container depot at Shagamu or Erunmu, and developing an alternative route out of Lagos, specifically, a dual carriageway from Sabo in Ikorodu (dovetailing with the six-lane highway from Ketu to Ikorodu by the Fashola government) to Ijebu-Ode. I am a regular traveller on that road and it is a shame that nobody has thought of it as a strategic alternative to the Lagos-Shagamu-Benin dual carriageway. Other road projects of strategic importance, deserving to be dual carriageways in the Southwest are the Ore-Akure; Ilesha-Akure; Oyo-Ogbomosho-Ilorin highways. Collaborating with State governors in the region to execute joint projects (instead of overt hostility and counter-productive rivalry with state governments by agents of the federal government or ruling party) would have availed much. With the aforementioned projects, the President could have locked up the votes in the region. Moreover, once the office of Speaker of the House of Representatives eluded the region, he could have made strategic Cabinet and non-Cabinet appointments to ensure that the Southwest was duly represented in the hierarchy of the federal government. It is

scandalous that no indigene of the entire zone occupies any of the top ten positions in Nigeria! Nevertheless, followers of those who have enjoyed patronage will vote for the President out of spite for their (and his) local opponents. Neutrals could do so in the hope that he will do better in the future, if given another chance.

 In your reckoning, what are your expectations from the Southwest and all over the country?

  I expect a peaceful election with clear victories for either APC or PDP (the two leading parties) in certain places and close races in others. APGA, AP and LP should win National Assembly seats in some States. However, the presidential election is all-important and, for the first time, we are witnessing a close contest (between APC and PDP), which is good for democracy. For now, politicians should stop

harping on religious, ethnic and cultural differences, and tell us what they have achieved with the mandate we gave them or what, based on track record, they are able to do after May 29. It is only incumbents without a record of performance that resort to scaremongering and a smear campaign. In all, the success of the elections depends on the neutrality of our security services and electoral officers, and the vigilance of the voters. 

Why do you think some elements are calling for postponement and others asking for transition government few days to the elections?

  Only losers stall the electoral process. They are akin to indolent students who idled away during the semester, but now resorted to causing trouble on campus to force the postponement of the examination that they did not prepare for. For our democracy to flourish, we must hold the elections, warts and all. By the way, I collected my PVC last year. Even with the best of all preparations, turnout of registered voters is never high. Any state or local government with more then 60

percent turnout of registered voters should be investigated for rigging. The muted clamour for an interim government too is the ploy of those facing the prospect of a rout at the polls. It is dead on arrival.